Throw Out the Playbook (the plays aren’t working)
COVID is shifting from a pandemic to an endemic disease that will be with us for generations. Governments are unwilling to shift accordingly, clinging to a playbook that is no longer working.
What is the most successful sports team in history? Americans might think of the Yankees, Lakers, Celtics or Patriots. Our neighbors to the north might suggest the Montreal Canadians hockey team. Europeans might toss out football (soccer) clubs Real Madrid or Barcelona for consideration. These would be good guesses, but they would be wrong.
There is one club that has a 77.1% winning percentage spanning more than a century. It has a lifetime winning record against every team with which it competes. Less than half of the teams they play have beaten them … ever. That team is the New Zealand national rugby team known as the All Blacks. New Zealand is a nation of little more than five million citizens. Most nations they compete against are much larger than they are. No matter, in the last 18 years since weekly Top 20 rankings have been tracked, the All Blacks have never dropped below #3. In fact, they have only been down at #3 for a mere 14 of the last 960 weeks.
There is an ethos about the All Blacks. Their success comes not from special plays dreamed up by their coach but rather from their culture that is rooted in humility, discipline, and tradition. In his book Legacy, James Kerr tells the story about how after a big match, two senior players pick up brooms and sweep out the clubhouse. “Because no one looks after the All Blacks. The All Blacks look after themselves.” Discipline is also reflected the awe-inspiring pregame ritual they perform called the Haka. The Haka is a traditional dance and chant that comes from the Maori people, indigenous to New Zealand. The All Blacks perform the chant before each match to both challenge and intimidate their opponents.
The All Black culture teaches us what true leadership looks like. Rather than true leadership, today’s elected officials rely on a book of plays that stopped working long ago. When telling people to “Follow the Science” doesn’t work, leaders suggest maybe there are foreign influences at work. Then they try to put down their citizens by labeling people fringe or racist or terrorists. When all else fails, they declare a state of emergency from some existential threat to both distract from the facts and enhance their authority. As predicted, Omicron has ended the pandemic and left us with an endemic disease. Citizens around the globe are pushing for an end to all COVID-related restrictions. While some governments are doing so, others are not letting go of control without a fight.
“Follow the Science” says mandates are not needed
The Omicron wave has clearly passed. The average number of new cases peaked at nearly 3.4 million around the world daily but is now below 2.2 million and dropping fast. That peak was more than 5X higher than during the Delta wave (0.67 million average daily cases). Yet, the average daily deaths during the Omicron wave were just 4% higher than during the Delta wave and far below prior waves. These are both shown in the left side of the graphic below. Calculating deaths from a disease as a percentage of confirmed cases is something scientists do to measure disease severity. This is known as case fatality rate (CFR). Globally, the CFR is down significantly since last year. Globally, around 0.3% to 0.4% of all cases now result in death. Death rates globally are now below those of the flu. Of course, of those, the vast majority are in older people; less than 1 in 20 deaths in people below 45 years old.
Vaccines have done their job, right? Maybe. Or maybe not. If you look at the CFR when vaccines began rolling out (early 2021), it was about 1.6%. Globally, vaccine protection was at its peak late in the summer of 2021 when the rate was hovering around 1.4% to 1.6%, trending up. Then in late November, the death rate started to fall dramatically, just as Omicron was spreading everywhere. In the words of one African doctor, Omicron, “is the vaccine that we failed to make.” Elsewhere in the world (Europe, Asia/Oceana, and North & South America) more than 60% of the population is fully vaccinated while in Africa that number is just 11%. If vaccines were the cause of declining death rates, Africa’s deaths would be disproportionately high. Quite the opposite – they are disproportionately low at 4% of deaths despite Africa being almost 18% of the world’s population.
Globally, COVID is now less fatal than the flu and we have Omicron to thank much more than vaccines. Does that mean elderly people haven’t benefited from the vaccines? They have. Vulnerable people have benefited but that benefit is fading. Last Friday, the CDC published data showing how protection from the booster shot is waning even faster than protection from the original vaccines did. Boosters were said to be required, particularly in the face of Omicron, because the regular two shot vaccine effectiveness had dropped to 37% within 5 months. The CDC promoted how boosters brought protection back up to more than 80%. Now, quietly the CDC is admitting that by month five, the effectiveness is 31% (left side of chart below). They are not taking about waning protection in getting the disease. They mean waning protection against ending up at the hospital. No wonder why booster adoption in the US is leveling off (right side of chart below). Just a quarter of Americans are opting for continued vaccine dosing.
We could debate vaccine effectiveness during the worst of things last year. Vaccines may still serve a purpose for high-risk people or those that want the extra protection against a severe disease. But mandates serve no medical purpose at this point. Everyone should be free to take or not take vaccines and boosters.
People are not stupid. They know that everyone is getting Omicron regardless of vaccine status or mask usage. You only needed to watch 5 minutes of the Super Bowl broadcast last Sunday to know that anyone with money or status doesn’t believe in the power of masks. Virtually none of the 70,000 cheering fans bothered with one. In many places, leaders are removing that “follow the science” play from their playbook since the science says mandates should be over.
The foreigners are not the problem
When that play doesn’t work, leaders often move on to scare tactics and xenophobia: foreigners are to blame. Canada’s Justin Trudeau tried using this ‘blame the foreigners’ tactic by claiming that foreigners were creating political instability in his country. This play works (kind of) when you are speaking of the Chinese or the Russians. It is less convincing when Canadians try to blame the Americans for their domestic protests. If anything, the Canadians are to blame for the disturbances in other countries. Protests have spread to Paris (France), Brussels (Belgium), The Hague (Netherlands), Vienna (Austria), Jerusalem (Israel), Canberra (Australia), and Wellington (New Zealand). Many of the protesters in these highly vaccinated countries are flying Canadian flags in solidarity with the Freedom Convoy protests in Ottawa.
Canadian leadership should be taking notes on what is happening in New Zealand. New Zealanders (also known as ‘Kiwis’) have tiny COVID numbers due strict isolation policies that closed their island nation off from the world. The nation saw less than 20,000 cases and roughly 50 deaths in the first two years. But cases are spiking now. Tired of two years of draconian measures, hundreds of Kiwis created a Freedom Convoy of their own that descended February 6th on their capital of Wellington to protest mandates. Prime Minister Jacinda Arden employed hostile rhetoric against them, claiming that, "It feels like an imported protest to me."
Putting down principled people often just emboldens them
By the third day of protests Arden had had enough. Authorities moved quickly to put down protests, arresting more than a hundred in a somewhat brutal clash with police.
It didn’t work. Dispersing hundreds by force resulted in thousands, more emboldened and more serious than before, returning the following day. Now, the protests have the feel of an occupation with people camping out on the government lawn. Staring out their windows, leaders were faced this week by a crowd performing the Haka, almost taunting them to a match. Most people performing the chant appeared to be more of Maori rather than European descent. Being on the receiving end of that chant is every bit as threatening from the Parliament lawn as it is on a rugby field. Having seen their friends arrested days before, these protesters mean business:
You can call it a fringe group today, but it may become a movement tomorrow
Authorities in highly vaccinated countries often claim these are fringe movements because most citizens have taken the vaccines. A full 90% of Canadian truck drivers are vaccinated, as are 94% of eligible Kiwis. This misses the point. Protesters are a mix of willingly vaccinated, unvaccinated, and those vaccinated under threat of job loss. People are protesting mandates and the governments that continue to push them in the face of scientific evidence to the contrary. Every generation has people willing to die for their freedoms. I suspect there are more than a few thousand willing to be arrested for theirs today.
Canada’s Trudeau claims there is no popular support for anti-mandate protests. A new poll found that 20% of Canadians supported the truckers AND the tactics they are using to protest (occupying the capital city). Roughly 60% of Canadians want to see these people thrown in jail. Constitutional freedoms are in place to protect the people from their government and the minority from the majority. Often it takes less than 10% extremely passionate members of a group to win over the majority in time.
The leaders of the Ottawa Freedom Convoy claim that their biggest problem is how to distribute the overwhelming amount of food, money, and supplies they receive each day. They are begin given far more than they need. Thus, for the last 19 days, they have been feeding the homeless and the poor. It sounds to me like character is starting to change hearts and minds.
If all else fails, declare a state of emergency and go after the people
Elites are finding out the hard way that when threats don’t work, you have two choices: negotiate or resort to action. There is a simple way to end the protests – end the mandates. Or at a minimum you must engage the protesters in a dialogue, something that no major country leader has done.
That leaves action. New Zealand tried that, and more people showed up the next day. Undeterred, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau just invoked the Emergencies Act for the first time in the country’s history. Critics are claiming he is essentially invoking martial law. We shall see. Trudeau says it will be limited in scope and time. Yet, he made it clear Canada intends to weaponize the banks and financial system against protesters by seizing bank accounts without needing warrants. Then he plans to put more boots on the ground and commandeer equipment.
Taking real action requires working-class people such as policemen and tow truck operators to act against fellow working-class people. Federal police (although not military) will be called in to clear protesters as some in the Ottawa police have expressed support for protesters. Trudeau also plans to temporarily seize trucks from towing companies. To date, the towing companies have refused to get involved against their customers. Emergencies Act or not, Trudeau has an uphill battle in front of him. Since the protests began, four Canadian provinces have dropped their mandates and have complained that the Emergencies Act should not be used. Thus, regional authorities are seeing the wisdom in standing down. Similar situations are playing out in more than a dozen countries.
In Conclusion
As discussed last week, due process is certainly being put to the test. Government leaders that continue to rule by unilateral mandates are running out of plays in their playbook. When they turn their citizens into enemies and vowed to punish them, it is clear they are running out of pages in their playbook.
Sports teams with enduring success for a century or more are sustained through character – humility, discipline, and tradition. They don’t divide. They unite. They inspire. Many states and countries are seeing the writing on the wall and ending mandates for a disease that is now as endemic as the flu. We shall see what happens to the prideful elites clinging to pandemic-era power. I pray calmer heads prevail before more get hurt. Millions of children and adults that have been devastated by the last two years.
Our problems can no longer be blamed on a virus. Pride and vanity of man are at the root of problems today.
< Please share this article with others. >